Ильинич Виталий Витальевич, канд. техн. наук, профессор, профессор кафедры «Метеорология и гидрология», ФГБОУ ВО «Российский государственный аграрный университет – МСХА им. К. А. Тимирязева»: Россия, 217550, г. Москва, ул. Тимирязевская, 49.

Тел.: (499) 977-73-55

E-mail: vilinitch@gmail.com

Список литературы:

1. СП 33-101-2003. Определение основных расчетных гидрологических характеристик. М. : Госстрой России, ФГУП ЦПП, 2004. – С. 70.

2. Золина О. Г. и Булыгина О. Н. Современная климатическая изменчивость характеристик экстремальных осадков в России // Фундаментальная и прикладная климатология. – 2016. – Т. 1. – С. 84–103.

3. Allan R. P., Soden B. J. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes // Science. – 2008. – Vol. 321. No. 5895. – Pp. 1481–1484. – doi:10.1126/ science.1160787.

4. Bulygina O. N., Razuvaev V. N., Korshunova N. N., Groisman P. Ya. Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia // Environ. Res. Lett. – 2007. – No. 2 (4):045020. – 7 pp. – doi:10.1088/1748–9326/2/4/045020.

5. Groisman P. Y., Knight R. W., Easterling T. R., Hegerl G. C., Razuvaev V. N. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record // J. Climate. – 2005. – No. 18. – Pp. 1326–1350.

6. Ilinich V. V., Larina T. D. Evaluation of changes storm. Precipitation during century for the modeling of floods // Sustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change – Erpicum et al. (Eds.). – London: Taylor & Francis Group, 2016. – P. 928–934. ISBN 978- 1-138-02977-4.

7. Ilinich V., Akulova E., Belchihina V. and Ponomarchuk K. Estimation of Statistical Characteristics for Storm Precipitation with Long-term Data to Assess Climate Change // Journal of Climate Change. – 2016. – Vol. 2. No. 2. – Рp. 83–87. DOI 10.3233/ JCC-160019.

8. Ilinich V., Belolubtcev A., Cavalli A., Veliev I., Lapushkin M. Modeling of storm precipitation. Proceedings of the 11th Int. Conference on Urban Drainage Modeling, 23–26 Sep. 2018, Palermo (ITALY). – Ed. Prof. Giogio Manina. – Pp. 466–469.

9. Lenderink G., van Meijgaard E. Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes // Nat. Geosci. – 2008. – No. 1. – Р. 511–514.

10. IPCC 2013. Climate Change 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Ed. T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley / Cambridge University Press. – Cambridge, New York, 2013.

11. Klein Tank A. M. G., Koennen G. P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99 // J. Climate. – 2003. – Vol. 16. – Р. 3665–3680.

12. Zolina O., Simmer C., Kapala A., Shabanov P., Becker P., Maechel H., Gulev S. K., Groisman P. New view on precipitation variability and extremes in Central Europe from a German high resolution daily precipitation dataset: Results from STAMMEX project. Bulletin of Amer. Met. Soc. – 2014. – P. 96. – doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00134.1.

13. Statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences / Ed. R. Dmowska, D. Hartman, H. T. Rossby // Inter. Geoph. Series. – Oxford, 2011. – Vol. 1. –668 p.

ASSESSMENT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE MAXIMUM FLOW RATES OF SMALL RIVERS

Ilyinich Vitaliy Vitalyevich, Cand. of Tech. Sci., Prof., Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, Moscow, Russia.

Keywords: daily precipitation, climate change, small rivers, maximum runoff, hydraulic facilities, statistical parameters, probability of exceeding, reliability.

Abstract. Basing on the studies of longterm observations by most weather stations in the world, a hypothesis has been put forward that over the past decades the maximum daily precipitation has increased for most of the regions, but not for all. This fact, first of all, is associated with general climate warming, because warm air can potentially contain more water vapor than cold one. An increase in the maximum daily precipitation leads to increasing the maximum water discharge at the watersheds, which must be taken into account for assessing the reliability of hydraulic structures, designing anti-erosion measures and the  degree of land flooding. In the presented work, the above-named hypothesis was verified and confirmed by the  example of long-term observations of daily precipitation at weather stations of the Tula region. Accordingly, an analysis is made of the degree of change in the estimated maximum water discharge due to an increase in maximum daily rainfall in recent decades, using the example of a specific small river basin in the Tula region. Obvious signs of increasing the estimated normative values of maximum daily precipitation in recent decades have been established. Conclusions are drawn on the results of studies that showed that water facilities in the region’s small watersheds, built before 1990, had lost their established reliability for their construction class. The observed climate change trend causes the need to update the normative technical documentation, which is used to determine the estimated values of precipitation and flood rainfall. The climate change tendency should be taken into account in the practice of engineering and hydrometeorological surveys and design in general.

REFERENCES

1. (2004) SP 33-101-2003. Opredeleniye osnovnykh raschetnykh gidrologicheskikh kharakteristik [SP 33-101-2003. Determination of the main calculated hydrological characteristics]. Moscow: Gosstroy of Russia, FSUE TsPP, 70.

2. Zolina O. G., Bulygina O. N. (2016) Sovremennaya klimaticheskaya izmenchivost’ kharakteristik ekstremal’nykh osadkov v Rossii [Modern climatic variability of extreme precipitation characteristics in Russia] Fundamental and Applied Climatology, 1: 84–103.

3. Allan R. P., Soden B. J. (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes [Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes] Science, 5895 (321): 1481–1484.

4. Bulygina O. N., Razuvaev V. N., Korshunova N. N., Groisman P. Ya. (2007) Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia. Environ. Res. Lett., 2 (4): 045020. 7 p.

5. Groisman P. Y., Knight R. W., Easterling T. R., Hegerl G. C., Razuvaev V. N. (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. Climate, 18: 1326–1350.

6. Ilinich V. V., Larina T. D. (2016) Evaluation of changes storm. Precipitation during century for the modeling of floods. Sustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change – Erpicum et al. London: Taylor & Francis Group: 928–934.

7. Ilinich V., Akulova E., Belchihina V., Ponomarchuk K. (2016) Estimation of Statistical Characteristics for Storm Precipitation with Long-term Data to Assess Climate Change. Journal of Climate Change, 2 (2): 83–87.

8. Ilinich V., Belolubtcev A., Cavalli A., Veliev I., Lapushkin M. (2018) Modeling of storm precipitation. Proceedings of the 11th Int. Conference on Urban Drainage Modeling, 23–26 Sep. 2018, Palermo, Italy: 466–469.

9. Lenderink G., van Meijgaard E. (2008) Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat. Geosci., 1: 511–514.

10. (2013) IPCC 2013. Climate Change 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge, New York, Cambridge University Press.

11. Klein Tank A. M. G., Koennen G. P. (2003) Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99. Climate, 16: 3665–3680.

12. Zolina O., Simmer C., Kapala A., Shabanov P., Becker P., Maechel H., Gulev S. K., Groisman P. (2014) New view on precipitation variability and extremes in Central Europe from a German high resolution daily precipitation dataset: Results from STAMMEX project. Bulletin of Amer. Met. Soc.: 96.

13. Dmowska R., Hartman D., Rossby H. T. (2011) Statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Inter. Geoph. Series. Oxford, 1. 668 p.