Гришко А.В.Изменение баланса сил в Южно-Тихоокеанском регионе: как новые игроки выигрывают у ведущей экономики Океании к концу второго десятилетия ХХI века // Научное обозрение: теория и практика. 2019. Т. 9. Вып. 10. С. 1592–1598. DOI: 10.35679/2226- 0226-2019-9-10-1592-1598

Гришко Алексей Викторович, аспирант, ФГБОУ ВО «Камчатский государственный университет им. Витуса Беринга»: Россия, 683032, г. ПетропавловскКамчатский, ул. Пограничная, 4.

Тел.: (415-2) 42-68-42

E-mail: kamgu@kamgu.ru

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CHANGING POWER BALANCE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC: HOW NEW PLAYERS OUTPERFORM THE LEADING OCEANIC ECONOMY BY THE END OF THE SECOND DECADE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Grishko Aleksey Viktorovich, Postgraduate student, Kamchatka State University, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia.

Keywords: Australia, Australian Union, South Pacific, South Africa, New Zealand, China, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Bougainville, regional economy, shadow economy, Chinese companies, offshore, Australian national economy.

Abstract. In the  context of the  global economic crisis, complex problems are observed in a number of regions, under the influence of transition from globalization to regionalization. As part of what is happening, past and present leaders are increasingly experiencing pressure from new players in the global economic space, both neighbors in the area and external participants who previously did not actively expand in the  places of the leading states’ historical dominance. Now the Australian Union is experiencing such pressure from the Republic of China, New Zealand, Fiji and, to a lesser extent, the Solomon Islands, including the  prospects for Bougainville (part of Papua New Guinea), which after the referendum can also take certain segments from Canberra export niches to its own advantage. The failure of Australia in an attempt to mask domestic problems with relative successes in foreign policy only worsened the role of the state on the world stage and in the South Pacific region. Developing countries in Oceania are increasingly paying attention to building new equal relations with New Zealand, Fiji and other countries of East and Southeast Asia. At the  same time, there is a powerful Chinese expansion into the South Pacific region with a predominance of companies from China that are crowding out not only Australian firms from traditional niches, but also other Chinese firms from neighboring regions of Oceania and the ASEAN countries. Thus, it is possible to determine a stable tendency to reduce the influence of the Australian leading economy of the South Pacific region and the forming new economic geo-strategic parity architecture of international relations in Oceania. It should be emphasized that there are scenarios for the development of events that can have different effects in the conditions of the global economic crisis on strengthening or weakening the position of the Australian Union, both in the region and in the global space. If the cabinet of ministers and the parliament do not begin to quickly deal with internal problems, in addition to the lobby of the forces promoting them, the crisis will only increase, which will lead to increased tension due to the burden of old problems and the emergence of new tasks, together with other factors, this will only complicate the situation of Canberra. Basing on the analysis of sources, a disappointing forecast was given for 2025–2045 on weakening the role of the leading state in the region with different options for accelerating this process. 

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